巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应与实际汇率偏离:一个经验研究

The Balassa-Samuelson Effect and Real Exchange Rate Deviations:An Empirical Study

均衡实际汇率的测算对探究实际汇率偏离对经济增长的影响非常重要。“巴拉-萨缪尔森效应”(巴萨效应)通过采用相对生产率测算均衡实际汇率,本文将ICP数据支出项目进行可贸易品和不可贸易品的划分并构建内部实际汇率,通过“巴萨效应”测算出均衡内部实际汇率并探究内部实际汇率偏离对经济发展水平的影响。研究结果表明:“宾大效应”替代“巴萨效应”会放大对实际汇率的影响;经“宾大效应”调整的实际汇率偏离对经济发展水平不具有解释力。进一步研究表明,内部实际汇率升值能够促进发达国家的经济发展水平,贬值能够促进发展中国家的经济发展水平。

The measurement of the equilibrium real exchange rate is important to explore the impact of real exchange rate deviations on economic growth.The“Balassa-Samuelson Effect”(B-S Effect)measures the equilibrium real exchange rate by using relative productivity.In this paper,we divide the ICP data expenditure items into tradable and non-tradable goods and construct the internal real exchange rate,calculate the equilibrium internal real exchange rate through the“B-S Effect”and investigate the impact of deviation of internal real exchange rate on the level of economic development.The results of the study show that:the“Penn Effect”replaces the“B-S Effect”to amplify the impact on the real exchange rate;the deviation of the real exchange rate adjusted by the“Penn Effect”does not have explanatory power on the level of economic development.Further research shows that an appreciation of the internal real exchange rate can contribute to the level of economic development in developed countries,while a depreciation can contribute to the level of economic development in developing countries.