保险业重要风险点的识别和演化分析——基于财务报告中披露的文本风险信息

Identification and evolution analysis of important risks in insurance industry based on the textual risk disclosures in financial reports

识别保险业当前和未来面临的突出风险并进行有效防控和监管对于维持保险业以及整个金融业的稳定具有重要意义.现有研究大多基于定量指标估算各类风险的水平,存在一定的间接性和滞后性.监管机构通常要求公司在财务报告中以文本的形式披露当前或未来面临的潜在风险,充分提取这些风险信息可以集合所有保险公司管理人员的经验和判断,更加直接、前瞻性地发现保险业面临的突出风险.因此,提出通过引入文本挖掘方法,从大量财务报告中识别保险业面临的重要风险点及其演化规律.实证基于214家美国上市保险公司2006-2018年的1682个财务报告,识别出29个保险业的重要风险点并分析重要度的演化趋势,发现与操作风险相关的风险点的重要度呈显著上升趋势,尤其是"信息系统安全"上升幅度最大,建议保险公司和监管机构目前应高度重视新技术、新业务模式带来的操作风险.

Identifying and effectively supervising the important risks of the insurance industry are of great significance for maintaining the stability of the insurance industry and the entire financial industry.Most studies estimate the level of major risks based on quantitative indicators,but there are some indirectness and hysteresis.Regulators usually require insurance companies to disclose current or future potential risks in their textual financial reports.Comprehensively extracting such risk information can gather the experiences of all insurance companies’ managers and identify important risks of insurance industry more directly and proactively.Therefore,the text mining method is adopted to identify the important risks of insurance industry from massive financial reports and analyze their evolutions.Based on 1682 textual risk disclosures of 214 listed insurance companies in the United States in 2006-2018,the empirical study identifies 29 important risk points.By analyzing the evolution trend of each risk point,the importance of risk points related to operational risks has shown a significant upward trend,especially the largest increase in "information system security".It is recommended that insurance companies and regulators should now attach great importance to the operational risk brought by new technologies and new business models.