经济政策不确定性对美国木质林产品进口贸易的影响

The Influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Import Trade of Wood Forest Products in the United States

在按照木质林产品HS六分位测算美国木质林产品16个主要进口来源国的进口拓展边际和集约边际的基础上,基于2001—2018年美国及其木质林产品16个主要进口来源国的经济政策不确定指数以及相关数据,利用构建的贸易引力扩展模型,分析经济政策不确定性对美国木质林产品进口贸易额、拓展边际和集约边际的影响。结果表明:经济政策不确定性对美国木质林产品进口贸易额和进口集约边际的影响显著为负,对进口拓展边际的影响为负向不显著;美国人均GDP、进口来源国人均GDP、美元实际有效汇率指数、美国经济自由度指数、进口来源国贸易开放度、进口来源国森林认证等也对美国木质林产品进口贸易额、进口拓展边际和集约边际产生不同程度和方向的影响。鉴于美国是世界上最大的木质林产品进口市场,也是中国木质林产品最主要的出口目的国,根据研究结果,提出树立风险意识、降低出口市场集中度、加强新产品研发、提高产品附加值、突破绿色壁垒限制等建议。

Based on the estimation of the import expansion margin and the intensive margin of the 16 main import source countries of wood forest products in the United States according to the HS 6 digits code,and their economic policy uncertainty index and related data from 2001 to 2018,a trade gravity expansion model was constructed to analyze the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the import trade volume,expansion margin,and intensive margin of the wood forest products in the United States.The results show that the impacts of the economic policy uncertainty on the United States’wood forest product import trade volume and import intensive margin is significantly negative,and the impact on import expansion margin is negative but insignificant.The per capita GDP,the real effective exchange rate and the economic freedom of the United States,the per capita GDP,the trade openness and the forest certification of the import source countries,also affect the import trade volume,import expansion margin and intensiveness in different degrees and directions.Given that the United States is the world’s largest import market for wood forest products and is also the main export destination for China’s wood forest products,some suggestions are proposed,such as establishing risk awareness,reducing export market concentration,strengthening new product research,increasing product added value,breaking through the green barriers.