基于GDIM法的中国民航运输业碳排放因素探讨

Discussion on Carbon Emissions of Chinese Civil Aviation Transportation Industry Based on GDIM Method

以2010—2018年中国民航运输业碳排放量作为研究对象,基于kaya恒等式模型,采用GDIM法将碳排放量分解为8个影响因素贡献值之和,将8个影响因素分为强度效应、规模效应以及效率效应进行分析。分析结果表明,规模效应有明显的碳排放促进作用,强度效应总体上有明显的碳排放抑制作用,效率效应既有促进作用,也有抑制作用。基于分析结果,提出加快制定发展战略规划、提高民航运输效率、提高能源利用率与加强国际合作等建议。

With the carbon emission of Chinese civil aviation transportation industry from 2010—2018,based on the kaya identity model,GDIM was used to decompose the sum of the contribution value of eight influencing factors,and the eight influencing factors were divided into intensity effect,scale effect and efficiency effect.The analysis results show that the scale effect has a significant carbon emission-promoting effect,and the overall intensity effect has both promoting and inhibitory effect.Based on the analysis results,suggestions is put forward,including accelerating the formulation of development strategic plans,improving the efficiency of civil aviation transport,improving energy utilization.