塞内加尔方久尼大桥施工风险概率分析

Probabilistic Analysis of Construction Risk for Foundiougne Bridge in Senegal

滨海大桥由于其复杂的环境和施工条件使得施工风险具有显著的不确定性。在充分考虑风险评估过程中主观性和不同风险因素之间相关性影响的基础上,提出一种基于模糊层次分析与随机过程理论的风险评估方法。基于随机过程理论建立风险因素参数的互相关对数正态分布的随机过程,将模糊层次分析法的极化确定评价等级转为更为合理的概率风险分析。依托塞内加尔方久尼滨海大桥工程开展应用研究,结果表明:基于模糊层次分析与随机过程理论的风险评估模型能准确地反映因素参数的统计特征及不同因素间的互相关性;基于随机性分析方久尼大桥施工风险等级为较低风险的概率为35.9%,中等风险的概率为33.7%。

There are significant uncertainties in the construction risks of seashore bridges because of the complex environment and construction conditions.With the consideration of the subjectivity and the correlation between different risk factors in the risk assessment process,a fuzzy analytic hierarchy with stochastic process is proposed.Based on the stochastic process theory risk assessment method,the cross-correlation log-normal distribution stochastic process of risk factor parameters is established,and the polarization determination evaluation level of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is transformed into a more reasonable probability risk analysis.Taking Senegal’s Foundiougne Bridge project as a case study,the results show that:the risk assessment model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy and stochastic process theory can accurately reflect the statistical characteristics of factor parameters and the cross-correlation between different factors.The probability that the construction lower risk level is 35.9%,and the probability of medium risk is 33.7%.