购房压力上升会使中国家庭消费倾向下降吗?

Will Rising Pressure on Housing Price Reduce the Household’s Propensity to Consume in China?

高房价使得居民家庭的购房压力加大,这是否会给家庭消费决策带来影响?对房价收入比指标进行了创新以衡量家庭购房压力,考察家庭购房压力对家庭消费的影响。构建家庭购房跨期消费模型,基于2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,实证研究发现:购房压力大的家庭消费倾向往往更高;并且运用替换变量、匹配倾向得分验证了结论的稳健性。异质性结果分析表明,对于农业户口、中西部地区、更了解金融知识的家庭而言,购房压力对家庭消费倾向影响更显著。机制检验表明,低收入家庭的消费会追赶高收入家庭的消费,这是由于存在同群效应;乐观的态度能抑制城市家庭的消费倾向。

In recent years,China’s housing price has grown rapidly,and it is increasingly hard for households to buy a house. Will this affect their consumption decisions? This study innovates the house price-to-income ratio index to measure the pressure of household purchase and examines its impact on household consumption. Based on the data of the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)in 2017,the paper firstly constructs an intertemporal consumption model for household purchases. Empirical research finds that households with high pressure to buy a house tend to have higher consumption propensity,and the robustness of the conclusion is verified by using substitution variables and matching propensity scores. Heterogeneity results show that for rural households,households in central and western regions,and households with better financial knowledge,the pressure to buy a house has a more significant impact on household consumption propensity. The mechanism test shows that the consumption of low-income households will catch up with the consumption of high-income households,and it is found that there is a cohort effect,and an optimistic attitude can restrain the consumption propensity of urban households.