RCEP背景下中国农产品出口竞争优势及动因分析

Analysis on the Competitive Advantage and Its Motivation of China’s Agricultural Export under the Proceeding of RCEP

基于区域性经贸组织对农产品贸易高质量发展的重要作用,梳理了《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)框架下中国农产品出口规模与结构演变特征,分析了出口竞争优势的提升前景,根据恒定市场份额(CMS)模型分解了整体域、产品域、市场域下竞争优势的培育要素。研究表明:(1)出口规模增速换挡且复苏乏力,产品集中化与市场多样化影响了竞争优势的稳定性,提升市场占有率是破解竞争优势培养瓶颈的关键。(2)规模增长效应逐渐疲软,产品种类效应、市场分布效应的重要性上升,具体供给效应表现欠佳,供给份额对需求结构的适应性亟待提高,不同视域下出口竞争优势的增持因素不尽相同。(3)相比全球市场,RCEP内部需求对竞争优势的提升效果更为显著。由此提出把握市场动态、促进出口增长多因素整合、建立贸易预警机制、加快“亚太农贸一体化”进程等对策建议。

Based on the important role of regional economic-trade organization in the high-quality development of agricultural export,this paper summarizes the scale and structure characteristics of Chinese agricultural export under the framework of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP), and analyzes the prospects for improving export competitiveness under the whole, market and product dimension according to the redefined Constant Market Share(CMS) model. Research results show that:(1) the export scale has entered a parallel period of growth shift and weak recovery. The trend of product concentration and market diversification has both affected the stability of export competitiveness, and market share increasing is critical to break the bottleneck of cultivating competitiveness;(2)Scale-Growth effect is weakening while the Product-Type and Market-Distribution effects are gradually strengthening, and the Specific-Supply effect is poor then the adaptability of supplying share to the demanding structure apparently needs to be improved, and the factors of competitiveness enhancement in different views are variant;(3) Compared with the global demand, RCEP internal demand has a more significant effect on competitiveness improvement. The article finally puts forward some suggestions from the aspects of grasping market dynamics, promoting the integration of export growth, establishing trade warning mechanism and speeding up the integration process of asia-pacific agricultural trade.