地震冲击对风险偏好的影响:来自中国城镇家庭的证据

Effects of Earthquake Shocks on Risk Preference:Evidence from Urban Household in China

自然灾害冲击如何影响决策者的风险偏好是学术界关注的热点问题,但现有研究对此并未达成一致结论。本文基于国家统计局城镇住户调查数据,研究了2003-2005年中国发生的4次地震对家庭风险偏好的影响及机制。基于双重差分法的研究发现:地震冲击显著提高了城镇家庭的风险厌恶程度,距离震中越近的家庭,震后购买彩票的概率和支出下降越多。地震带来的风险预期上升和负向情绪冲击是重要机制,距离震中越近的家庭,震后的非储蓄性保险支出以及糖类、健身、奢侈品和美容等缓解负向情绪的消费支出上升越多。本文的结论表明家庭的风险偏好有可能因为风险冲击而发生改变,这为理解灾害冲击对风险偏好的影响提供了来自中国城镇部门的证据,也为保险业的经营管理提供了启示。

How natural disasters affect households’risk preferences is a topic of much interest in economics.However,the existing literature has not yet reached a consensus on this.Based on Urban Household Survey sample from the National Bureau of Statistics(NBS)of China,this paper examines the effects and mechanisms of four moderate earthquakes that occurred in China between 2003 and 2005 on households’risk preferences.Employing the difference-in-differences(DID)technique,the study finds that earthquake shocks significantly increase urban households’risk aversion,and that households closer to the earthquake epicentre experience a greater decrease in their probability of lottery purchase and lottery spending per capita than those that are further away from it.The increase in risk perceptions and the negative psychological shock caused by earthquakes are extremely important mechanisms.Households that are closer to the epicentre increase their non-saving insurance expenses,as well as their consumption of sugar,fitness and hedonic items,in order to alleviate their negative emotional state.The conclusions derived from this work indicate that the risk preferences of decision makers may be altered by risk shocks,which provides evidence about urban households in China allowing us to understand the impact of natural disasters on risk preferences,and sheds light on the product design of the insurance industry.