农业保险保障水平影响农民增收的模拟分析

Simulation Analysis of the Effect of Agricultural Insurance on Farmers'Income

使用全国29个省的2010~2019年的面板数据,对我国农业保险保障水平影响农民增收的成效进行模拟分析。实证结果表明:提高我国农业保险的保障水平对农民经营纯收入的增加产生了积极的作用。从全国来看,农业保险保障水平提高1%,促进农业人均净收入增加0.0104%;农业保险保障水平对农村居民家庭收入影响具有不平衡性,对东、中部等我国保障水平高、财政自给能力强的地区的作用效果更显著。因此,中央财政应加大财政补贴农业保险的力度和范围,提高农业保险保障水平,对财政自给能力弱的地区给予更大的补贴比例。

Using the panel data of 29 provinces from 2010 to 2019,this paper makes a simulation analysis on the effect of China's agricultural insurance security level on farmers'income increase.The empirical results show that:the level of agricultural insurance security has a significant positive effect on the increase of farmers'income.From the perspective of the whole country,1%increase in the level of agricultural insurance security promotes the increase of agricultural per capita net income by 0.0104%;The impact of agricultural insurance security level on rural residents'family income is unbalanced,and the effect is more significant in the East and central regions with high security level and strong financial self-sufficiency.Therefore,the central government should increase the intensity and scope of financial subsidies for agricultural insurance,improve the level of agricultural insurance security,and give a larger proportion of subsidies to areas with weak financial self-sufficiency.