大国地缘政治竞争的新嬗变——以混合战争和灰色地带为例

New Changes in Geopolitical Competition among Major Powers:The Cases of Hybrid Warfare and the Gray Zone

混合战争和灰色地带作为大国地缘政治竞争的手段,具有鲜明的时代性,折射出新时期大国地缘政治竞争的新嬗变:竞争手段更趋综合,竞争过程追求模糊,竞争实质越来越体现为国家治理能力之争。究其原因在于,核武器和相互依赖导致国家倾向于选择低于传统战争的竞争手段;高新技术发展提供了新的竞争手段,也影响着大国开展竞争的态势;双重秩序困境与霸权存在决定了竞争过程的模糊性;全球化的影响为大国竞争所利用,凸显出大国地缘政治竞争的实质。这为中国有效应对大国地缘竞争带来三个方面的启示:坚持多边主义、树立系统理念和做好自己的事。

As means of geopolitical competition among major powers, hybrid warfare and the gray zone show distinctive features of the times, and reflect new changes in geopolitical competition among major powers in the new era, including the increasing integration of competition tactics, the pursuit of ambiguity in the competition process, and the competition in national governance capacity as the essence of geopolitical competition. These changes are determined by the following factors: because of nuclear weapons and interdependence, countries tend to choose means of competition less intense than traditional wars;high-tech development provides new tactics of competition and has an influence on the competition among major powers;the dual dilemma in the international order and the existence of a hegemony give rise to ambiguity in the competition process;and the impact of globalization is utilized in the competition among major powers, manifesting the essence of geopolitical competition among major powers. There are three implications for China to effectively deal with geopolitical competition among major powers, i.e.adhering to multinationalism, establishing a systematic approach, and taking good care of our own business.