河南省各地级市水资源承载力评价研究

Evaluation Research on Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Prefecture⁃Level Cities in Henan Province

结合河南省各地级市水资源状况,建立对应“以水定地、以水定人、以水定产”指标体系,基于熵权法和变异系数法组合权重TOPSIS模型,对河南省各地级市2010—2020年水资源承载力进行综合评价,并从空间布局对“以水定城”提出建议。结果表明:2010—2020年河南省各地级市水资源承载力等级整体偏低,在Ⅲ级(临界)与Ⅳ级(超载)之间波动,虽均未达到Ⅱ级(弱可载)及以上等级,但也未出现Ⅴ级(强超载)等级,差异性不大;安阳、新乡、商丘、周口4个地级市研究期内出现Ⅳ级(超载)等级,郑州等其他14个地级市研究期内始终保持在Ⅲ级(临界)等级。

Combining with the status of water resources of each prefecture⁃level city in Henan Province,this paper established an index sys⁃tem based on the“constrain agriculture,population and industry by water resources”.The water resources carrying capacity of prefecture⁃lev⁃el cities in Henan Province from 2010 to 2020 was evaluated by the TOPSIS model combined with entropy weight method and variation coeffi⁃cient method.Then,from the perspective of spatial layout,it put forward suggestions for“constrain town by water resources”.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity of each prefecture⁃level city in Henan Province from 2010 to 2020 is generally lower,fluctua⁃ting between gradeⅢ(critical)and gradeⅣ(overload).Although they do not reach to gradeⅡ(weak load)or above,there is no gradeⅤ(serious overload)and the difference is not significant.During the study period,Anyang,Xinxiang,Shangqiu and Zhoukou remained at levelⅣ(overload),while the rest 14 prefecture⁃level cities remained at gradeⅢ(critical).