基于企业行为偏好的企业间信用担保网络与风险传染研究

Inter-firm Credit Guarantee Network and Risk Contagion Based on Enterprise Behavior Preference

本文从行为金融学视角,结合复杂网络理论和信用担保关系选择机制构建了内生性企业间信用担保网络以及企业间信用担保网络风险传染模型,仿真分析了企业间信用担保网络结构及其风险传染演化特征。研究得到如下主要结论:(1)随着时间演化,企业间信用担保网络结构呈现"弱去中心化"特征,而且企业间信用担保网络的复杂性与稳定性增强;(2)企业资信水平不仅能够提高"担保圈"风险冲击概率,而且可以降低信用担保系统的不稳定性。随着企业影响力和企业风险认知水平增大,有助于增强冲击后企业信用担保系统的稳定性。企业风险偏好较小时,保证了"担保圈"内有效的流动性供给,但当企业风险偏好不断增强时,加剧了信用担保需求方的经营困境。(3)企业风险偏好对企业影响力、企业资信水平、企业风险认知水平发挥"强化效应"。企业资信水平与企业影响力具有"互为强化效应"。企业风险认知水平的"风险制约能力"强于企业资信水平的"风险强化能力"。企业风险认知水平与企业影响力对违约企业数量的影响发挥互为逆向效应且两者强度相当。

In the actual financing process,it is difficult for many firms to obtain all the funds necessary for their own development through the financial system.Firms often obtain gap funds through credit guarantee other than bank borrowing,firm bond or stock,thus forming a complex and close inter-firm network of guarantee circle.However,facing the instability of the market environment and the behavior preference of different firms,firms as the demander of credit guarantee may be inclined to venture capital,which increases the uncertainty of firm operation and the probability of credit default,resulting in frequent problems of guarantee circle.Therefore,in this context,an in-depth analysis of the formation and contagion of credit guarantee risk in guarantee circle will help to optimize the inter-firm relationship of credit guarantee,reduce the default risk of inter-firm credit guarantee and play a benign financing function of guarantee circle under the influence of firm behavior preference.Firstly,from the perspective of behavioral finance,the inter-firm risk contagion mechanism of credit guarantee is discussed under the influence of firm behavior preference;secondly,an endogenous inter-firm credit guarantee network and the risk contagion model of inter-firm credit guarantee network based on the complex network theory and the selection mechanism of credit guarantee relationship are constructed;finally,it simulates and analyzes the network structure of inter-firm credit guarantee and its evolution characteristics of risk contagion under the influence of firm behavior preference are simulated and analyzed.The simulation results show that 1)With the evolution of time,the network structure of inter-firm credit guarantee is characterized by“weak decentralization”,and the complexity and stability of inter-firm credit guarantee network are enhanced.2)Firm credit level can not only improve the risk shock probability of guarantee circle,but also reduce the instability of credit guarantee system.With the increase of firm influence and risk cognition level,it helps to enhance the stability of firm credit guarantee system after the shock.When firm risk preference is small,it guarantees the effective liquidity supply in the guarantee circle,but when firm risk preference is increasing,it aggravates the operational dilemma of credit guarantee demanders.3)Firm risk preference exerts“reinforcing effect”on firm influence,firm credit level and firm risk cognition level.Firm credit level and firm influence have"mutually reinforcing effect".The risk restriction ability of firm risk cognition level is stronger than the risk reinforcing ability of firm credit level.The influence of firm risk cognition level and firm influence on the number of default firm is reciprocal,and the intensity of the two is equal.The risk contagion mechanism,network structure and risk contagion evolution characteristics of inter-firm credit guarantee are studied under the influence of firm behavior preference,which enriches the research results of inter-firm credit guarantee network and risk contagion.The conclusion of this paper is helpful to optimize the credit guarantee relationship between firms,reduce the default risk of credit guarantee between firms and give full play to the benign financing function of guarantee circle.