基于SIR-MCMC方法的新冠肺炎疫情评估与防控

COVID-19 Assessment and Prevention Based on SIR-MCMC Method

文章基于SIR-MCMC方法,针对湖北省的新冠肺炎疫情观测期数据,拟合得到感染强度和易感者初值,并从基础再生数、疫苗介入等五个方面对疫情发展和防控措施进行评估。结果表明:湖北省新冠肺炎疫情的基础再生数为4.4416,自2020年2月18日开始,其有效再生数小于1,政府严格的防控措施效果逐步显现;同时,t时刻现有确诊人数观测值的可靠性较好;降低感染强度、增大移除率及疫苗介入等措施均有利于对疫情的控制和对医疗压力的缓解,其中较大范围的疫苗接种预防效果非常明显,相比无免疫时,当疫苗保护率为20%、50%时,确诊人数峰值分别下降33.94%、77.82%。

Based on the SIR-MCMC method,this paper fits the observation period data of COVID-19 pandemic in Hubei Province to obtain the infection intensity and the initial values of susceptible persons,and furthermore evaluate the epidemic development and control measures from five aspects,including the basic reproduction number and vaccine intervention.The results show that the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 in Hubei Province is 4.4416,and the effective reproduction number has been less than 1 since February 18,2020,and the effects of the government’s strict control measures has gradually taken on;at the same time,the reliability of the observed number of confirmed cases is good;the measures of reducing the infection intensity,increasing the virus removal rate,and introducing vaccines are conducive to the control of the pandemic situation and the alleviation of medical pressure,in which the expected effect of large-scale vaccination is very obvious.Compared with cases with no immunization,when the vaccine effectiveness is 20%and 50%,the peak number of confirmed cases decreases by 33.94%and 77.82%.