新疆生产建设兵团人口现状及变化趋势分析

Study on population status and change trend of The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps

文章基于新疆生产建设兵团的人口历史数据,描述了兵团人口规模、结构和分布的现状,并对兵团人口迁移的规模、模式、来源地和原因等进行了具体分析。在此基础上,采用队列要素预测方法,使用PADIS-INT人口预测软件,对兵团未来30年的人口变动趋势进行比较分析。结果显示,新疆兵团当下已经处于极低生育率阶段,如果未来兵团人口发展按照低方案、无迁移量0万或低迁移量3万的方案,兵团人口负增长和人口结构老龄化趋势不可逆转。新疆兵团依靠人口净迁移来弥补人口自然负增长的作用将会越来越小,因为在全国各地均处于低生育水平阶段的大背景下,与中部和东部地区相比,兵团逐渐失去吸引人才优势。如果未来其仍处于较低的生育水平,一旦迁入人口补给不足,人口机械增长作用减弱,新疆兵团的人口可持续发展将会受到严重威胁,少子老龄化等人口结构激变将会对兵团社会经济发展产生不利影响。为优化兵团人口资源,改善人口老龄化结构,未来兵团需着重提高生育水平,从内部根源造血,并加大政府投入,改善兵团地区生活环境,减少现有兵团人员外迁,并增强外来人员吸引力。

Based on the historical population data of Xinjiang production and Construction Corps,this paper describes the current situation of population scale,population structure and distribution of the Corps.Which makes a specific analysis on the scale,mode,source and causes of population migration of the Corps.The population change trend of the Corps in the next 30 years is compared and analyzed by using the Cohort-component prediction method and PADIS-INT population projection software.The results show that the population of Xinjiang Corps is now in the stage of low fertility.If the population development of the Corps in the future follows the model of low plan,which is no migration of 0 or low annual net migration of 30000,the negative growth of the Corps population and the aging trend of population structure are inevitable.The role of net population migration can make up for the natural negative growth of the population of Xinjiang corps,but under the background of low fertility,compared with the central and eastern regions,Xinjiang corps gradually loses the advantage of attracting talents.If it is still at a low fertility level in the future,once the supply of the relocated population is insufficient and the role of population mechanical growth is weakened,the population sustainable development of Xinjiang Corps will be seriously threatened,and the drastic changes of population structure such as the aging of young children will have an adverse impact on the social and economic development of Xinjiang corps.In order to optimize the population resources of the corps and improve the aging structure of the population,in the future,the Corps needs to focus on improving the fertility level,making blood from internal sources,increasing government investment,improving the living environment of the Corps,reducing the relocation of existing Corps personnel and enhancing the attraction of outsiders.