基于24Model-AHP的校园踩踏事故致因及预防研究

Study on the Cause and Prevention of Campus StampedeAccident Based on 24Model-AHP

为预防校园踩踏事故的发生,减少事故发生带来的危害,本文结合行为安全“2-4”模型,总结分析近20年48起校园踩踏事故的直接、间接、根本、根源原因,并将事故原因中的主要影响因素进行量化,建立校园踩踏事故层次分析模型,计算各影响因素权重,得到影响因素的重要度排序。结果表明:习惯性行为不佳和安全管理体系欠缺是校园踩踏事故的主要影响因素。据此提出事故预防策略,验证了行为安全“2-4”模型分析校园踩踏事故的实用性,以及与层次分析法结合的准确性。

In order to prevent the happening of the campus stampede accident and reduce the harm caused by the accident,in this paper,the direct,indirect,fundamental and root causes of 48 campus stampede accidents in the past 20 years were summarized and analyzed based on the 24Model.The main influence factors of the accident causes were quantified.A hierarchical analysis model for the campus stampede accident was established.The importance ranking of the influencing factor was obtained through calculating the weight of each influencing factor.The results show that the poor habitual behavior and lack of safety management systems are the main factors influencing campus stampede accidents.According to the calculation results,the accident prevention strategy is put forward.The practicability of 24Model to analyze the campus stampede accident and the accuracy of combination with AHP are verified.