城市燃气管网“三融六核”风险监测与管控技术体系

Risk Monitoring and Management and Control System With Three Integrations and Six Cores for Urban Gas Pipe Network

针对我国城市燃气管网规模巨大、结构复杂、管控困难、事故频发的挑战,在国内城市燃气管网风险监测与管控中,尚存在的“数据粗泛、评估散浅、管控孤缺”3个方面的难题,本文提出城市燃气管网数据融合、评估融合、管控融合的技术体系架构,主要包含3个方面:一是构建时空连续辅助感知、多参互验交叉采集、熵变调权多向关联、异源回归异构统一、梯次时变双驱映射、压缩感知智能转储6个核心方法组成的数据融合技术体系;二是形成城市燃气管网动态风险评估融合方法体系,包含“复杂系统失效场景衍生聚变的综合风险评估理念”“动态风险耦合预警方法”“井、线、网梯次递进的燃气管网失效风险分析架构”;三是建立城市燃气管网风险管控理论、平台及装备体系,实现城市燃气管网从事件预防到风险管控质的转变。依托于北京市燃气管网进行实际的实验及应用,为智能管网建设提供技术支撑和决策依据,全面提升城市燃气管网风险管控能力,对全国城市燃气管网风险管控具有借鉴意义。

In view of the challenges arisen from huge scale,complex structure,difficult management and control and frequent accidents of the urban gas pipeline network in China,and the three problems of extensive data,scattered assessment and lack of control that still exist in the risk monitoring and management and control of the current domestic urban gas pipe network,a technology system architecture including data integration,evaluation integration and management and control integration was proposed.Firstly,a data integration technology system that consists of six core methods of continuous auxiliary sensing in time and space,multi-parameter mutual test and cross acquisition,multi-directional correlation of entropy change weight,heterogeneous regression of heterogeneous unity,echelon time-varying dual drive mapping,compressed sensing intelligent transfer was constructed.Secondly,a converged method system for the dynamic risk assessment on urban gas pipeline networks was formed,in which it includes comprehensive risk assessment concepts fused and derived from the failure scenarios of the complex system,coupling early warning methods for the dynamic risk,and the failure risk analysis framework for the gas pipeline network with step progression in accordance with the well,the line and the network.Thirdly,the theory,platform and equipment system for the risk management and control was established for the urban gas pipeline network so as to realize the transformation of urban gas pipeline network from the incident prevention to the risk management quality.The actual experiments and applications in Beijing gas pipeline network provide the technical support and decision-making basis for constructing intelligent pipe networks,comprehensively enhance the risk management and control ability of urban gas pipeline networks,and are referential values for the risk management and control of urban gas pipeline networks in China.