中央企业国有资本收益与红利分配——对比分析与特征事实

State-Owned Capital Gains and Dividend Distribution of State-Owned Key Enterprises:Comparative Analysis and Characteristic Facts

以中央企业集团为研究对象,探讨国有资本收益收取与国有企业红利分配关系,总结国有企业红利分配的特征事实。对比发现,反映在中央国有资本经营预算收入决算中的国有资本收益与数据公开的中央企业集团红利分配在不同年度存在明显差异。进一步分析中央企业各年度红利分配与上一年度净利润等数据间关系后得出,红利分配与净利润存在"利润减红利增""利润增红利减"两个背离期。造成背离期出现的可能原因在于缓解财政平衡压力的需要,为应对未来不确定性预留政策空间等。依据红利分配率分组检验发现,超额分配组主要集中于利润较为丰厚的垄断及一般竞争性行业,在"两利"方面的显著强势突显了其超额分配的必然性,在资产负债率和研发投入强度方面的显著弱势初步印证了超额分配可能存在的负面影响。

Taking the state-owned key enterprises groups as the research object, this paper explores the relationship between state-owned capital gains and dividend distribution and summarizes the characteristic facts of state-owned key enterprises’ dividend distribution. The comparison in this paper finds that there are significant differences between the state-owned capital gains in the final accounts of central state capital operations budget revenue and the distribution of dividends to state-owned key enterprise groups for which data is publicly available in different years. Further analysis of the relationship between dividend distribution and net profit of the previous year by state-owned key enterprises shows that there are two divergent periods between dividend distribution and net profit performance: "profit minus dividend increase" and "profit plus dividend minus". Possible reasons for the emergence of divergent periods are the need to ease pressure on the fiscal balance, to allow policy space to deal with future uncertainties, etc. Based on the group test of dividend distribution rate, it is found that the over-distribution group is mainly concentrated in the more profitable monopolistic and generally competitive industries, and the significant strength in "two benefits" highlights the inevitability of over-distribution, while the significant weakness in gearing and R&D investment intensity confirms the possible negative impact of over-distribution.