基于SD模型的保定市主城区水资源供需模拟

Simulation of water resources supply and demand in Baoding main urban area based on SD model

依据保定市主城区水资源供需特点和经济社会发展现状,以实现水资源供需平衡为目标,构建了水资源系统供需系统动力学模型。通过分析水资源供需比敏感参数,设计5种不同参数调控方案。通过对比不同方案的模拟结果得出,采用节水控制和产业结构调整相结合的方式,是改善保定市主城区水资源供需平衡的最佳发展模式,并进一步提出该区域水资源与经济社会、生态环境和谐发展的建议。此模型的量化调控措施为保定市主城区水资源管理决策提供了参考依据。

According to the characteristics of water resources supply and demand and the current situation of social and economic development in Baoding main urban area,a dynamic model of water resources supply and demand system was established to achieve the balance of water resources supply and demand.Based on the analysis of the parameters sensitive to the ratio of supply and demand of water resources,five different parameter control schemes were designed.By comparing the simulation results of different schemes,it was concluded that the combination of water saving control and industrial structure adjustment was the best development mode to improve the balance between supply and demand of water resources in Baoding main urban area,and some suggestions on the harmonious development of water resources with social economy and ecological environment were put forward.The quantitative control measures of this model provided reference for decision-making of water resources management in Baoding main urban area.