青海省房地产价格和银行信贷规模的关系研究

Relationship Between Real Estate Price and Bank Credit Scale in Qinghai Province

青海省具有“强省会”的特点,对于青海省房地产价格的管控政策应与中东部一线城市有所区别。本文对青海省房地产价格与银行信贷规模之间的动态关系进行分析,通过VAR模型得出中长期贷款余额变化是商品房价变化的格兰杰原因,并指出中长期贷款对商品房价格会产生较大的影响,其对商品房价格的变化存在明显的正反馈效应。并据此对青海省房价调控给出相应建议。

"Strengthening the provincial capital"is the characteristic of Qinghai Province,so the real estate price control policies in Qinghai Province should be different from those in first-tier cities in central and eastern China.This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between real estate price and bank credit scale in Qinghai Province.Through VAR model,it is concluded that the change of medium and long-term loan balance is the Granger reason for the change of commercial housing price,and has a great impact on commercial housing price.At the same time,there is an obvious positive feedback effect on the change of commercial housing price in Qinghai Province.Based on this,it gives corresponding suggestions on the regulation of housing prices in Qinghai Province.