资本管制与人民币汇率动态调整

Capital Control and Dynamic Adjustment of RMB Exchange Rate

本文构建了开放条件下切合中国实际的一般均衡模型,分析资本管制对人民币汇率超(低)调动态演变的影响。理论研究指出,当资本管制程度高于阈值时,中国的货币扩张将导致人民币汇率出现低调;当资本管制程度低于阈值时,人民币汇率会超调。经济结构参数决定了汇率超调或低调的程度和持续性,资本管制力度对汇率动态的影响存在不对称性。随后本文测算出了中国的资本管制程度和人民币汇率超(低)调的程度,对理论模型的预测结论进行实证检验,发现人民币汇率在升值趋势中低调,但在贬值趋势中超调。深入分析在资本管制下人民币汇率动态的多样性,有助于为中国的资本账户开放和人民币汇改之间的良性互动提供理论支撑。

This paper develops a general equilibrium model,with the impact effect of capital control threshold on RMB exchange rate overshooting or undershooting dynamics.If the degree of capital control is higher than the threshold,an unexpected monetary expansion in China will lead to exchange rate undershooting.However,if capital control degree is lower than the threshold,exchange rate overshooting will come up.We also find the asymmetric effect of changing degree of capital control;the tightening of capital control will result in a smaller overshooting or a larger undershooting.The empirical research on RMB exchange rate and capital control doesn’t give full support to the theoretical model,due to several factors relating to China’s economic reality.RMB exchange rate tends to overshoot during depreciation,while undershooting is more likely to occur during appreciation.These findings help to deepen the understanding of the beneficial interaction between the liberalization of China’s capital accounts and RMB exchange rate reform.