低碳城市试点政策与中国制造业技术路径选择

Low-Carbon City Pilot Policies and China’s Manufacturing Technology Path Selection

面对碳达峰和碳中和的目标约束,中国制造业如何选择技术进步路径,在实现生产效率提升的同时满足低碳可持续发展的要求?本文基于低碳城市试点政策的视角,采用多期双重差分模型对上述问题进行探讨。研究表明,低碳城市试点政策显著推动了制造业技术路径转化的过程,在碳排放约束影响下,创新主体通过技术路径由引进模仿转向自主研发,满足绿色发展的要求;该影响受环境规制强度调节,适度提升规制强度能够强化低碳城市试点政策对技术路径转化的促进效应。进一步研究发现,相较于命令控制型规制工具,市场激励型规制工具对技术路径选择的影响更加显著。此外,低碳城市制造业的技术路径选择受内在要素禀赋的制约,随着人力资本、经济发展水平和技术能力升级,低碳试点政策对制造业技术路径转化的促进效应愈加明显。本文的研究不仅丰富了制造业技术路径选择的相关文献,也为实现低碳可持续的高质量发展提供了政策参考。

Facing the target constraints of"carbon peak"and"carbon neutral",how should the manufacturing industry make technological choices to achieve green and sustainable development?Based on the perspective of low-carbon city pilot policies,this article uses a double-differential model to discuss the above issues.Studies have shown that low-carbon city pilot policies have a significant role in promoting technological path transformation,inducing the technological path to shift from introduction and imitation to independent R&D,and the impact depends on the intensity of environmental constraints.Further research found that,compared with command-and-control regulatory tools,market-incentive regulatory tools have a more significant impact on the choice of technology path.Also,under carbon emission constraints,the choice of manufacturing technology path is regulated by intrinsic factor endowments.The improvement of human capital,economic development level and technological capabilities can strengthen the promotion of low-carbon city pilot policies in promoting the conversion of technology paths.The results of the regional heterogeneity test show that for those with a higher level of development like eastern cities and large cities,low-carbon pilot policies have more obvious effects on technological path transformation.The research in this article not only enriches the relevant literature on manufacturing technology path selection,but also provides policy reference for realizing green and sustainable high-quality development.