消费外流是否“反哺”一国产业结构升级?

Does Consumption Outflow “Feed Back” A Country’s Industrial Structure Upgrade?

经济高质量发展依托产业结构升级,提升消费层次是产业结构升级的重要推动力。在开放经济下,消费层次的提升伴随着消费外流,消费外流是否"反哺"一国产业结构升级?本文选取2008—2019年跨国面板数据,利用系统GMM模型,实证分析消费外流对产业结构升级的影响。研究结果表明,消费外流对本国产业结构升级存在着抑制影响和拉动作用。当一国的产业结构高级化水平较低时,存在着抑制影响;当产业结构高级化水平较高时,则起到拉动作用,即"反哺";并且,影响机制不因收入水平的差异而变化,考虑经济危机所带来的影响,分时期进行稳健性检验后该结论依然成立。本文研究结论丰富了对消费外流影响的研究,为理解我国"双循环"发展新格局提供了新的思路和参考。

The high-quality economic development relies on the upgrading of the industrial structure, and raising the level of consumption is an important driving force for the upgrading of the industrial structure. In an open economy, the increase in consumption levels is accompanied by consumption outflows. Does the outflow of consumption “feed back” the upgrading of a country’s industrial structure? We select the cross-country panel data from 2008 to 2019 and use the systematic GMM model to empirically analyze the impact of consumption outflow on the upgrading of industrial structure. The research results show that the consumption outflow has a restraining influence and a pulling effect on the upgrading of domestic industrial structure. When the advanced level of a country’s industrial structure is low, there is a restraining effect. When the advanced level of the industrial structure is high, it plays a pulling role, that is, “feed back”, and the influence mechanism is not due to differences in income levels. Changes are still valid after considering the impact of the economic crisis and conducting robustness tests over time. The conclusions of this article enrich the research on the impact of consumption outflow, and provide new ideas and references for understanding the new pattern of double cycle development.