断点回归方法及其应用

Regression Discontinuity Method and Its Application

文章通过对断点回归分析方法的总结,延伸出模糊性断点回归的处置效应与处置意向分析框架,在一定的条件下解决了缺失解释变量观测值可能引起的因果关系阐述不完整的情况。结合北美影响力巨大的WIC项目,实证分析了收入冲击对家庭人口结构的影响,介绍了断点回归在经济社会研究中的应用,包括其需要符合的前提条件、应用假设以及实证步骤等;同时,提出了应用方面的扩展。

By summarizing the Regression Discontinuity(RD) analysis methods, this paper extends the fuzzy RD design into treatment analysis and intention to treat(ITT) analysis, and solves the incomplete explanation of causality that may be caused by missing observed values of explanatory variables under certain conditions. Then, combined with the influential WIC(the Women,Infants, and Children) program in North America, the paper empirically analyzes the impact of income shock on family structure,and introduces the application of RD in economic and social researches, including its prerequisites, application assumptions and empirical steps. At the same time, the paper proposes the extension of application.