中国沿海省份经济发展质量评价及障碍因子诊断

Quality Evaluation and Obstacle Factor Diagnosis of Economic Development in Coastal Provinces of China

为准确刻画中国沿海11省份经济发展质量现状,文章从新发展理念视角出发,综合考虑沿海省份的陆海优势,构建了经济发展质量评价指标体系,并基于各省份面板数据,采用变异系数-改进的TOPSIS法、障碍度模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明:沿海省份2011—2018年整体经济发展质量呈现稳步上升态势,各省份间存在一定差距,但这一差距正逐渐收敛;空间上,11省份经济发展质量大致呈现南北低、中间高的"橄榄型"分布格局;时间上,各省份经济发展质量涨幅不一,增长稳定性各异;从障碍因子诊断结果看,沿海11省份经济发展质量主要障碍因素差别较大,产生的约束作用也强弱不一。

In order to accurately describe the status quo of economic development quality in 11 coastal provinces of China,this paper comprehensively considers the land and sea superiority of coastal provinces to construct the evaluation index system of economic development quality from the perspective of new development concept, and then adopts the coefficient of variation-improved TOPSIS method and obstacle degree model to conduct empirical analysis based on panel data of each province. The study results are shown as follows: The overall economic development quality of coastal provinces from 2011 to 2018 shows a steady upward trend, and there is a certain gap between provinces, but the gap is gradually converging. In terms of spatial distribution, the economic development quality of the 11 provinces shows an“olive type”distribution pattern, which is low in the north and the south, and high in the middle. In terms of time, the increase of economic development quality and the stability of growth vary among provinces. According to the diagnosis results of obstacle factors, the main obstacle factors of the economic development quality in the 11 coastal provinces are quite different, and the restraining effects are also different.