新兴产业发展的就业创造与破坏——基于鲶鱼效应视角的实证检验

Job Creation and Job Destruction of Emerging Industry:Empirical Research based on the View of"Catfish Effect"

文章将工业分为新兴产业和传统产业两类部门,通过构建基于鲶鱼效应视角的“两部门”模型,分析新兴产业发展的直接和间接就业效应及其作用路径,并利用面板门槛模型进一步探讨新兴产业间接就业效应的非线性特征、影响因素及作用机理。以2009~2019年省级面板数据为样本的实证检验结果表明:(1)新兴产业发展通过“提升就业创造率”和“降低就业破坏率”两条途径直接促进工业就业净增长;(2)新兴产业通过传统产业对工业就业净增长产生的间接影响存在“先抑制后促进”的特征;(3)新兴产业创新能力、传统产业知识吸收能力和劳动力质量可以强化新兴产业对工业就业净增长的间接促进作用。文章认为,在加快发展新兴产业的基础上,促进新兴产业与传统产业对接融合,提升新兴产业创新能力、传统产业知识吸收能力和劳动力质量,是充分释放新兴产业就业带动能力的关键。

On the basis of the classification of industrial sectors,this paper establishes a two-sector model based on"catfish effect"to analyze the direct and indirect employment effect of emerging industries and their functional path,and addresses nonlinear effects,influence factors and the mechanism of the indirect employment effect as well.Based on the provincial panel data from 2009 to 2019,the empirical results show as follows.(1)Emerging industry has a positive effect on net growth of employment by"promoting job creation"and"inhibiting job destruction".(2)The indirect effect of emerging industry on employment net growth through traditional industries is characterized by"first inhibited and then promoted".(3)The indirect positive effect of emerging industry on employment net growth can be strengthened by the influence of innovation ability of emerging industries,knowledge absorption ability of traditional industries and labor quality.Therefore,accelerating emerging industries’development,integrating emerging industries and traditional industries,and improving the innovation ability of emerging industries,knowledge absorption ability of traditional industries and the quality of labor force are the keys to release the employment driving ability of emerging industries in full.