科技创新、政策稳定性与经济复杂度

Innovation,Policy Stability and Economic Complexity

科技创新能够通过产业政策稳定性的变化对经济复杂度产生影响,基于科技创新理论,依据世界银行和哈佛大学Atlas数据库1995—2019年199个经济体数据,运用中介效应检验方法,构建分析框架。理论上,科技创新可以通过提高政策稳定性促进经济复杂度提升。实证上,测度了科技创新和经济复杂度的综合水平,使用政策稳定性刻画了经济体的科技创新,并在此基础上进行中介效应计量。结果表明:科技创新显著提升了经济复杂度、促进了政策稳定性,政策稳定性在促进经济复杂度提升方面起到部分中介效应,占比为61.02%。以人均国民收入作为替代变量进行稳健性检验结论仍然成立,中介效应量占比为57.42%。对作用机制的分析显示,促进经济复杂度提升存在“先发优势”“产业政策窗口期”和“机会窗口期”效应。

Sci-tech innovation can affect economic complexity through the change of industrial policy stability.Based on the theory of sci-tech innovation and the data of 199 economies from 1995 to 2019 in Atlas database of the World Bank and Harvard University,an analysis framework is constructed by using the method of the mediating effect test.Theoretically,sci-tech innovation can promote economic complexity by improving policy stability.In the empirical analysis,the comprehensive level of sci-tech innovation and economic complexity is measured,and the sci-tech innovation of the economy is demonstrated through policy stability.Then the mediating effect is measured.The results show that sci-tech innovation significantly promotes economic complexity and policy stability,and policy stability plays a partial mediating effect in promoting economic complexity,accounting for 61.02%.The conclusion of the robustness test with per capita national income as a substitute variable is still valid,and the proportion of the mediating effect is 57.42%.The analysis of mechanism shows that there are effects of"first-mover advantage","industrial policy window period"and"opportunity window period"which boost economic complexity.