基于前景理论的PPP项目股权结构多属性决策研究

Multi Attribute Decision Making of PPP Project Ownership Structure Based on Prospect Theory

潜在投资者对PPP项目股权结构方案的选择构成合作方股权博弈的基础。根据PPP项目特点,分析项目收益和风险、潜在投资者能力和关系等因素对PPP项目股权结构的影响,以此建立股权结构决策评价指标;针对已有研究完全理性假设的不足,考虑决策者心理偏好和犹豫不决的模糊心理,基于前景理论中参照点的选取分析股权方案的感知心理价值,以犹豫模糊语言形式进行方案评价,构建多属性决策模型。通过计算各股权结构方案的综合前景值,对方案进行排序和选择。并以某节水灌溉PPP项目实例,证明该决策方法的可行性和有效性。

Potential investors'choice of ownership structure scheme of PPP project constitutes the basis of the partner equity game.According to the characteristics of the PPP project,this paper analyses the influence of project income and risk,potential investor capacities and relationships on the ownership structure.In this way,the multi-attribute decision-making evaluation index of the ownership structure is established.In view of the deficiency of the complete rationality hypothesis in the existent research,,the selection of reference points in prospect theory is used to analyse the perceived psychological value of equity plan by considering the psychological preference of decision-makers and the fuzzy psychology of indecision;the scheme evaluation is carried out in the form of hesitant fuzzy language to construct the multi-attribute decision-making model.Schemes are ranked by calculating the comprehensive prospect value.Finally,a water-saving irrigation PPP project is taken as an example to prove the feasibility and effectiveness of the decision-making method.