中国经济高质量发展水平的空间格局与动态演进

Spatial Distribution and Dynamic Evolution of China's High-quality Economic Development Level

基于2000—2017年中国省际面板数据,通过构建经济高质量发展水平综合评价指标体系评价中国经济高质量发展水平,借助标准差椭圆、Dagum基尼系数、Moran’s I指数等多种空间统计方法揭示中国经济高质量发展水平的空间非均衡特征、地区差距和空间相关性,并进一步使用Kernel密度估计和空间Markov链考察其动态演进特征。研究结果发现:(1)中国经济高质量发展水平呈上升趋势,空间分布整体表现为"南高北低"、"东高西低"。(2)中国经济高质量发展水平存在地区差距和空间相关性,地区间差距的贡献率最大,多数省份位于高—高集聚区和低—低集聚区。(3)中国经济高质量发展水平整体存在"多极分化"现象,八大地区发展水平表现出"两极分化"特征。(4)不考虑空间因素,低水平省份向上转移的概率大于中高、高水平省份的转移概率;考虑空间因素时,与高水平省份为邻,能够提升低水平省份向上转移的概率,低水平"邻居"抑制低水平省份向更高层级转移。

Based on the provincial panel data of China from 2000 to 2017, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system of high-quality economic development level to evaluate the China’s high-quality economic development level. Using standard deviation ellipse, dagum Gini coefficient, Moran’s I index and other spatial statistical methods, this paper reveals the spatial non-equilibrium characteristics, regional disparity and spatial correlation of China’s high-quality economic development level, Kernel density estimation and spatial Markov chain are used to investigate the dynamic evolution characteristics.The findings are as follows:(1) China’s high-quality economic development level is on the rise, and the overall spatial distribution is "high in the south, low in the north", "high in the east and low in the west".(2) There are regional gaps and spatial correlations in the China’s high-quality economic development level. The contribution rate of the gaps between regions is the largest. Most provinces are located in high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration areas.(3) The overall China’s high-quality economic development level has a "multi-polarization" phenomenon, and the development level of eight major regions shows the characteristics of "polarization".(4) Without taking into account the spatial factors, the probability of upward transfer in low-level provinces is higher than that in medium-high-level and high-level provinces. When considering spatial factors, being "neighbors" with high-level provinces can improve the upward transfer probability of low-level provinces, and low-level "neighbors" inhibit the transfer of low-level provinces to higher levels.