黄河流域农业绿色发展水平综合评价分析

EVALUATION OF AGRICULTURAL GREEN DEVELOPMENT LEVEL IN THE YELLOW RIVER

[目的]实现农业绿色发展,对于黄河流域高质量发展具有重要的现实意义。通过测度黄河流域农业绿色发展水平,解析其绿色发展水平的时序特征和区域差异,提出黄河流域农业绿色发展的政策建议。[方法]文章运用熵权综合评价法,选取2012—2018年黄河流域面板数据,从资源节约、环境友好和高效发展三个层面构建农业绿色发展评价指标体系,评价分析黄河流域农业绿色发展水平。[结果]从时序变化来看,2012年以来黄河流域农业绿色发展水平得到显著提高,农业绿色发展综合评价值从2012年的0.153提高到2018年的0.829;2018年资源节约、环境友好、高效发展的评价值分别为0.179、0.502、0.148,资源节约和高效发展是黄河流域农业绿色发展的短板;从区域差异上看,黄河流域各省区农业绿色发展水平区域差异较大,总体上呈现“上下游高中游低”的特点,2018年农业绿色发展水平最高的山东,评价值为0.528,排名最低的宁夏仅为0.317;黄河流域农业绿色发展总体水平较低,农业面源污染问题较为突出。[结论]黄河流域各省区应弥补不足,缩小省域间差异;因地制宜,针对黄河流域的不同地区制定和实施差异化政策;聚焦资源节约和高效发展。

The realization of agricultural green development is of great practical significance for the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. The purpose of this research is to measure the level of agricultural green development in the nine provinces(autonomous region) along the Yellow River Basin, analyze its temporal characteristics and regional differences and put forward relevant policy recommendations. Based on the panel data of nine provinces(autonomous region) in the Yellow River Basin from 2012 to 2018, an index system of agricultural green development in the Yellow River Basin was built including three first-grade indexes(i. e., resource conservation, environmental friendly, and efficient development) and entropy weight comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate the level of agricultural green development in the study area.The results showed that from the perspective of time series changes, the agricultural green development in the Yellow River Basin had been significantly improved since 2012. The comprehensive evaluation value of agricultural green development in this area had increased from 0.153 in 2012 to 0.829 in 2018;the evaluation values of resource conservation,environmental friendliness and efficient development in 2018 were 0.179, 0.502, and 0.148, respectively. Resource conservation and efficient development were the obstacles and shortcomings of agricultural green development in the Yellow River Basin;In terms of regional differences, the agricultural green development had large interprovincial differences in the study area and presented the general trend of "higher values at upstream and downstream and lower values at midstream". Shandong had the highest agricultural green development level in 2018 with an evaluation value of 0.528, while Ningxia ranked the lowest, was only 0.317. Therefore, it is necessary to make up for the deficiencies of the agricultural green development in order to narrow the differences between the nine provinces(autonomous regions) along the Yellow River, to formulate and implement differentiated policies for different regions, and to promote the resource conservation and efficient development.