金融发展与技术创新水平——兼论经济政策不确定性的调节作用

Financial Development and Technological Innovation Level--Also on Regulatory Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty

基于中国经济政策不确定程度加深、区域创新乏力的典型事实,选取2000—2018年中国30个省份的面板数据,通过实证研究检验金融发展对区域创新水平的影响效应,并从研发投资和资本配置的视角考察经济政策不确定性对两者关系的调节作用。结果发现:(1)金融发展的不断深化对技术创新水平会产生先促进后抑制的非线性影响;(2)经济政策不确定性削弱了金融发展对技术创新水平的促进作用,形成独特的“弱化效应”,且该效应在高价值的激进型创新及中西部地区的影响更显著;(3)进一步的渠道检验表明,经济政策不确定性主要通过阻碍研发投资削弱了金融发展对技术创新的推动作用,而资本配置的中介检验结果不显著。本研究旨在为我国“十四五”规划中提出的“完善金融支持创新体系”提供启示,为政府政策变更的强度提供参考。

Based on the typical facts of economic policy uncertainty and weak regional innovation in China,the panel data of 30 provinces and cities are selected to empirically study the impact of financial development on the level of regional innovation,and the regulatory effect of economic policy uncertainty on the relationship between them is examined from the perspective of R&D investment and resource allocation.The results show that:(1)The deepening development of finance will have a nonlinear impact on the level of technological innovation,first promoting and then inhibiting;(2)Economic policy uncertainty weakens the role of financial development in promoting the level of technological innovation,forming a unique“weakening effect”,which is more significant in high-value radical innovation and the central and western regions;(3)Channel test further shows that economic policy uncertainty weakens the role of financial development in promoting technological innovation mainly by hindering R&D investment,while the intermediary test result of resource allocation is not significant.The conclusion provides enlightenment for“improving the financial support innovation system”in the 14th Five Year Plan,and provides a reference for the adjustment intensity of government policy change.