碳中和背景下能源消费与区域经济增长收敛性关系研究

Research on the Convergence Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Regional Economic Growth under the Background of Carbon Neutralization

从区域经济增长和能源消费强度之间的关系出发,设定区域人均GDP收敛模型和能源消费强度与区域经济增长收敛模型,来分析我国东部、中部和西部地区的人均GDP的收敛情况以及中部、西部和东部省份的能源消费强度与人均GDP差异之间的关系。研究发现,东部、中部和西部地区的人均GDP均呈上升趋势,但在能源消费强度方面都呈下降趋势;能源消费强度与经济的发展水平呈负相关关系,东部地区的能源消费强度和碳排放是三个地区中最低的,西部地区的能源消费强度高于中部地区;东部、中部和西部经济地区的人均GDP发展水平存在GDP的绝对收敛;中部地区与东部地区的能源消费强度差异是发散的,西部地区与东部地区的能源消费强度差异则是收敛的。结果表明,区域经济发展战略的制定要考虑能源禀赋和传统工业的发展现状,针对碳排放量依然较大的地区,要采用能源利用效率较高的相关技术和发展相关产业,减少碳排放以争取尽快实现碳中和。

From the perspective of the relationship between regional economic growth and energy consumption intensity,the regional per capita GDP convergence model and the convergence model between energy consumption intensity and regional economic growth are set up to analyze the convergence of per capita GDP in eastern,central and western China and the relationship between energy consumption intensity and per capita GDP difference between central and western and eastern provinces.The findings are as follows:the per capita GDP of the eastern,central and western regions shows an upward trend and the energy consumption intensity shows a downward trend;there is a negative correlation between energy consumption intensity and economic development level;the energy consumption intensity and carbon emission in the eastern region are also the lowest among the three regions,and the energy consumption intensity in the western region is higher than that in the central region;the development level of per capita GDP in the eastern,central and western economic regions is differentβAbsolute convergence;the difference of energy consumption intensity between the central region and the eastern region is divergent,while the difference of energy consumption intensity between the western region and the eastern region is convergent.The results indicate that in formulating regional economic development strategy,the energy endowment and the development status of traditional industries should be considered and that for areas with large carbon emissions,relevant technologies with high energy efficiency should be adopted and relevant industries should be developed to reduce carbon emissions,so as to achieve carbon neutralization as soon as possible.