基于主成分-BP网络的大型体育赛事场馆运行风险评估研究

Study on the operation risk assessment of large sports venues based on principal component BP network

大型体育赛事场馆运行风险评估是在风险管理过程理论的基础上建立的。风险管理过程理论包括风险识别、风险评估、风险对策、实施决策、风险监督,其中风险识别是整个风险管理过程中的第一步,也是风险评估的基础。只有在正确识别可能出现的风险的前提下,才能够对风险进行综合评价,并且找到预防措施或者解决办法应对风险的发生。为此,通过目标分解法建构大型体育赛事场馆运行评估指标体系,并使用主成分分析与BP神经网络模型结合的方法作为评估方法加以分析,对探索大型体育赛事场馆运行风险评估方法具有积极意义,为有效规避潜在风险、成功运作体育赛事提供参考。

Large sports event venue risk assessment is established in the risk management on the basis of process theory. The theory of risk management process includes risk identification, risk assessment, risk countermeasures,implementation decisions and risk supervision, among which risk identification is the first step in the whole risk management process and the basis of risk assessment. Only on the premise of correctly identifying possible risks,can we comprehensively evaluate risks, and find the preventive measures or solutions to deal with the occurrence of risks. Therefore, it has positive significance to construct a large sports venues running evaluation index system through the target decomposition method, and explore the large sports venues running risk assessment method by using principal component analysis and BP neural network model, so as to provide scientific basis and constructive suggestion for effectively avoiding potential risk and successfully holding sport events.