户主年龄与住房债务:偏好还是厌恶

Household-Head Age and Housing Debt:Preference or Aversion

住房的获取成本及其效用随着家庭生命周期的演进而发生变化。住房债务作为家庭解决住房支付能力不足的有效手段,是否会随户主年龄增长而产生变化?对此,本文利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据展开实证分析。结果表明,随着年龄增长,户主对住房债务的态度由偏好转为厌恶,拐点出现在30岁。机制分析发现,收入不确定性和风险偏好在户主年龄对家庭住房债务的影响中具有中介效应。异质性检验表明,家庭是否承担住房债务及债务规模的拐点因家庭收入、房产数量和有无未成年子女呈现出明显差异。进一步研究发现,在住房债务资金渠道方面,户主年龄越大,越倾向于通过民间机构借款。细分群体来看,低收入家庭及多套房家庭选择亲友借款的概率更高,而有子女的家庭会优先选择亲友借款,其次选择民间机构。本文的研究结论为政府贯彻“房住不炒”的基本思路,保证家庭的合理性住房资金需求,进而缓解住房债务风险提供了政策参考。

The cost and utility of housing acquisition vary with the evolution of family life cycle.As an effective method for families to solve the inadequate capacity of housing payment,will housing debt change with the growth of household-head age?In this regard,this paper utilizes the data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)to carry out the empirical analysis.The results show that with age increasing,the attitude of household-head towards housing debt has changed from preference to aversion,and the inflating point appears at 30 years-old.The mechanism study shows that income uncertainty and risk preference have intermediary impact on the nexus of household-head age and housing debt.The heterogeneity tests find the inflection point of whether a family has housing debt and the size of debt show a significant difference due to income,number of house and the presence of minor children.Further research has demonstrated that the older the household-head is,the more likely it is to borrow through private institutions.By subgroups,low-income households and households with multiple suites are more likely to choose borrowing from friends and relatives,while households with children will prefer borrowing from friends and relatives,followed by private institutions.The results of this paper provide a policy reference for the government to implement to the general principle of"houses are for living in,not for speculation",ensure the reasonable housing finance needs of households,and thus mitigate the housing debt risk.