亚洲世纪:困境与未来

Asian Century:Dilemma and Expectation

百年变局中,"亚洲世纪"及其理念下的亚洲发展和共同体建设正面临严峻挑战。基于学术界前期对"亚洲世纪"的理念和发展现状的研究,"亚洲世纪"的发展可分为分裂的亚洲时期、觉醒的亚洲时期、崛起的亚洲时期和腾飞的亚洲时期四个阶段,"亚洲世纪"在不同的阶段面临不同的困境,如地缘政治竞争、大国关系紧张和经济乏力等。基于历史和现实困境,结合中国、印度、亚洲其他国家以及美国等多方学者和政要的不同意见和观点,未来世界主要大国及域外其他国家都将在"亚洲世纪"中扮演重要角色,中印、中美关系和地区局势走向很大程度决定"亚洲世纪"的未来,其确定性来源于亚洲大国间加强政治对话、深化安全合作和推进经济区域一体化的努力,"亚洲世纪"的轮廓将在各国持续展开的对话、竞争和冲突中逐渐清晰。

In the centennial great changes,the "Asian Century" as well as its philosophy of Asian development and community building is facing severe challenges.This article is a discussion of the dilemma and exceptation of the "Asian Century".Based on the academic research on the concept and development status of the "Asian Century" in the earlier stage,this article divides the development of the "Asian Century" into four periods:a splitting Asia period,an awakening Asia period,a rising Asia period,and a soaring Asia period,to discuss the dilemma of the "Asian Century" at different stages,such as geopolitical competition,tension between major powers and economic weakness,etc.Then,based on these historical and realistic dilemmas,the future of the "Asian Century" is discussed,combined with the different opinions and viewpoints of scholars and dignitaries from China,India,other Asian countries,and the United States.This article believes that the world’s major powers and other countries outside the region will play an important role in the "Asian Century",and the Sino-Indian relations,China-U.S.relations and the trend of the regional situation will largely determine the arrival of the "Asian Century".Its certainty comes from the efforts of Asian countries to strengthen political dialogue,deepen security cooperation,and advance economic regional integration.The outline of the "Asian Century" will gradually become clear in the ongoing dialogue,competition and conflict among countries.