工业机器人与中国制造业地区发展差距:后发优势还是先发优势?

Industrial Robots and Regional Development Gap of China’s Manufacturing:Late-mover Advantage or First-mover Advantage?

本文考察了"机器换人"背景下工业机器人对中国制造业地区发展差距的影响。研究结果表明:由于工业机器人与低技能劳动的替代关系,其应用对地区劳动力比较优势带来一定的冲击,促进了非技术密集制造业的分散化发展,因而对非技术密集行业存在后发优势;但由于工业机器人与高技能劳动的互补关系,其应用巩固了先发地区的技术、人才优势,促进了技术密集制造业的集聚发展,因而对技术密集行业存在先发优势。通过异质性检验发现:工业机器人对非技术密集制造业的分散作用更多存在于华东和西北地区,而对技术密集制造业的集聚作用更多集中在华北、中南和西北地区;在机器人的作用下,非技术密集制造业的分散趋势主要由其行业自东向中、西部转移所致,而技术密集制造业的集聚趋势主要与其行业重心向东部地区收缩有关。

Under the background of “machine substitution”, this paper investigates the impact of industrial robots on the regional development gap in China’s manufacturing. It is found that as the substitution for low-skilled labor, the application of industrial robots has a certain impact on the comparative advantages of regional labor and promotes the decentralized development of non-technology-intensive manufacturing, so it has a late-mover advantage for non-technology-intensive industries. However, as the complement to high-skilled labor, the application of industrial robots consolidates the advantages of technology and talents in first-mover areas and promotes the agglomeration and development of technology-intensive manufacturing, so it has a first-mover advantage for technology-intensive industries. Through the heterogeneity test, it is found that the dispersion effect of industrial robots on non-technology-intensive manufacturing exists more in East China and Northwest China, while the agglomeration effect of technology-intensive manufacturing is more concentrated in North China, South Central China and Northwest China. Moreover, under the influence of robots, the dispersion trend of non-technology-intensive manufacturing is mainly caused by the transfer of its industries from east to central and west, while the agglomeration trend of technology-intensive manufacturing is mainly related to the contraction of its industry focus in east.