目标价格不同补贴方式对新疆棉花生产的影响

The Influence of Different Subsidy Methods of Target Price on Cotton in Xinjiang

2015-2019年间,新疆棉花目标价格政策在实践中有两种补贴方式:与交售量挂钩的补贴方式和混合补贴方式。两种补贴方式是否会产生显著不同的激励效果?文章基于2010-2019年县域面板数据,利用倍差法模型分析不同目标价格补贴方式对新疆棉花生产的影响。研究发现,在控制其他影响因素的条件下,与交售量挂钩的目标价格补贴使得新疆其他地区棉花单产水平较南疆四地州平均高出了189.28公斤/公顷。进一步分析表明,补贴方式差异引致的生产差异原因是与交售量挂钩的目标价格补贴政策存在类似于"马太效应"的"劣地退出、优地更优"机制。为实现"控制面积、提质增效"的政策目标,文章认为当前全疆实行统一的与交售量挂钩的补贴方式更为合理,若其他农产品支持政策借鉴新疆棉花目标价格补贴方式的相关经验,须结合相关农产品的具体特性,并建立相应的农业信息系统。

From 2015 to 2019, there were two subsidy modes for cotton target price policy in Xinjiang: one is subsidy mode linked to sales volume, the other being mixed subsidy mode. Have the two subsidy methods produced significantly different incentive effects? Based on the county panel data from 2010 to 2019, this paper uses the double difference model to analyze the impact of different target price subsidies on cotton production in Xinjiang. The study has found that under the condition of controlling other influencing factors, the target price subsidy linked to the sales volume makes the per unit yield of cotton the regions of Xinjiang higher than that in the four prefectures of Southern Xinjiang by 189.28 kg/HA on average. Further annlysis shows that the reason for the difference in production caused by the difference in subsidy modes is that the target price subsidy policy linked to the sales volume follows a mechanism of a“Matthew effect”,namely,the inferior weeded out the superior optimizing.In order to achieve the policy goal of“controlling area,improving quality and increasing efficiency”,the paper believes that it is more reasonable to implement a unified subsidy mode linked to the sales volume in Xinjiang at present. The other agricultural products support policies learn from the relevant experience of Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy mode.It is necessary to combine the specific characteristics of relevant agricultural products and establish the corresponding agricultural information system.