新疆生态资源“丰裕”抑或“稀缺”:属性研判与时空测评

Xinjiang Ecological Resources: Abundant or Scarce? ——Attribute Research and Evaluation from Time and Space

厘清新疆生态资源丰裕度状态,横向探究区域间生态关系,是新疆生态文明建设与可持续发展的重要基础。文章基于生态足迹和空间分异性分析方法,对新疆14地区2008-2018年人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力、生态盈亏水平进行研判及时空差异性分析。结果表明:(1)新疆生态资源账户整体表现为"生态稀缺",在区域层面,仅有阿勒泰始终保持"生态丰裕",其他区域皆"生态稀缺"。(2)新疆生态占用过多而生态容量偏少是生态资源稀缺的主要原因,其中人均生态足迹"稳增长,趋好转",人均生态承载力呈"微波动,缓增长"的变化态势。(3)北疆生态足迹"稳增加",南疆生态足迹"先增后降",耕地足迹与化石能源足迹分别是南北疆生态足迹的决定性因素;南北疆生态承载力均"先降低后增加",其中耕地承载力是南北疆生态承载力的主要部分。(4)人均生态足迹整体由新疆中部地区向南北逐渐减缓,具有显著极化效应;人均生态承载力由北到南呈高低值交叉分布;生态盈亏由北疆东部向周边优化,空间格局各有差异。(5)新疆各地区人均生态足迹具有正相关性,存在空间关联效应,并随时间推移空间集聚度逐步加深,南北疆表现出不同的集聚特征。

It is an important basis for the construction of ecological civilization and sustainable development of Xinjiang to clarify the state of ecological resource abundance and explore the ecological relationship among regions. Based on the methods of ecological footprint and spatial differentiation, the paper analyzes the per capita ecological footprint, per capita ecological carrying capacity and ecological profit and loss level of 14 regions in Xinjiang from 2008 to 2018.The results show are as follows.(1)The overall performance of Xinjiang’s ecological resource account is“scarce ecologically”.At the regional level,only Altay remains“ecological abundance”,while other regions show“ecological scarcity”.(2)The main reason for the scarcity of ecological resources in Xinjiang is that the ecological footprint per capita is growing steadily and turning better,and the ecological carrying capacity per capita is growing slowly.(3)The ecological footprint of Northern Xinjiang has increased steadily,while that of Southern Xinjiang increased first and then decreased.Arable land footprint and fossil energy footprint are the decisive factors of ecological footprint of northern and southern Xinjiang respectively. The ecological carrying capacity of the northern and southern Xinjiang“first decreased and then increased”,and the cultivated land carrying capacity is the main part of the ecological carrying capacity of the northern and southern Xinjiang.(4)The per capita ecological footprint gradually slowed down from the central region of Xinjiang to the north and south,with a significant polarization effect. The ecological carrying capacity per capita shows a crossing distribution of high and low values from north to south. The ecological profit and loss are optimized from the eastern part of Northern Xinjiang to the surrounding areas,and the spatial patterns are different.(5)There is a positive correlation between the per capita ecological footprint of different regions in Xinjiang, and there is a spatial correlation effect.