城市生活垃圾与经济增长的非线性关系——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证分析

Nonlinear relationship between municipal solid waste and economic growth:empirical analysis based on environmental Kuznets curve

良好的环境是人类赖以生存和发展的基础,随着中国经济的快速发展和城镇化水平的不断提高,城市生活垃圾成为影响居民健康和城市可持续发展的重要因素。城市生活垃圾是否会随着经济发展一直持续增长下去?还是会存在着拐点?文章基于环境库兹涅茨曲线,选取2005—2019年中国30个省、自治区、市的面板数据,实证研究城市生活垃圾与经济增长之间的关系,并在不同经济发展水平下检验区域异质性。研究结果表明:(1)中国整体城市生活垃圾与经济增长呈倒“S”型,两个拐点大约在人均GDP为36 890元和107 450元。(2)北京、上海等沿海经济发达的地区大都已越过或接近第二个拐点,未来城市生活垃圾将随着经济增长呈下降趋势。(3)内陆地区除甘肃外,其余地区均已越过第一个拐点,但尚未越过第二个拐点,未来城市生活垃圾将随着经济增长呈上升趋势。(4)区域异质性检验发现,东部地区城市生活垃圾与经济增长呈倒“U”型;拐点大约在人均GDP为75 720元,中部地区城市生活垃圾与经济增长呈“U”型,拐点大约在人均GDP为34 500元;西部地区城市生活垃圾与经济增长呈倒“U”型,拐点大约在人均GDP为181 795元。总体来看,东部经济发达的地区企业和居民环保意识较强,政府对城市生活垃圾治理效果较好;中部和西部地区企业和居民环保意识还有待提高,政府应加强对城市生活垃圾的治理以及提高企业和居民的环保意识,特别是西部地区环保意识还很薄弱。由此,为实现环境保护与经济增长的协调发展,基于实证结果提出以下政策建议:(1)改变垃圾计费方式,有助于加速WKC曲线“拐点”的来临。(2)对不同地区应实行差异化环境规制政策。(3)应加大对“绿色”技术创新的投入。

Good environment is the basis of human survival and development.With the rapid development of China’s economy and the improvement of urbanization,municipal solid waste has become an important factor affecting residents’ health and urban sustainable development.Will municipal solid waste continue to grow with economic development? Or will there be a turning point? Based on the environmental Kuznets curve,this paper selected the panel data of 30 provinces,cities and autonomous regions from 2005 to 2019 to empirically study the relationship between municipal solid waste and economic growth and tested the regional heterogeneity under different economic development levels.The results showed that:(1) China’s overall municipal solid waste and economic growth presented an inverted S-shaped curve,and two turning points appeared when the per capita GDP reached about 36 890 yuan and 107 450 yuan,respectively.(2) Beijing,Shanghai and other coastal economically developed areas passed or approached the second turning point,and the municipal solid waste would decrease with future economic growth.(3) Inland areas except Gansu had all passed the first turning point,but not passed the second turning point yet,and the municipal solid waste would increase with future economic growth.(4) Regional heterogeneity test found that the relationship between municipal solid waste and economic growth in the eastern region showed an inverted U-shaped curve,and a turning point appeared when the per capita GDP reached about RMB 75 720 yuan.The relationship between municipal solid waste and economic growth in the central region presented a U-shaped curve,and the turning point appeared when the per capita GDP reached RMB 34 500 yuan;the relationship between municipal solid waste and economic growth in the western region showed an inverted U-shaped curve,and the turning point appeared when the per capita GDP reached about RMB 181 795yuan.On the whole,enterprises and residents in the eastern economically developed areas had strong environmental awareness,and the government exerted a good effect on municipal solid waste treatment.The awareness of environmental protection of enterprises and residents in central and western regions needed to be improved.The government should strengthen the treatment of municipal solid waste and improve the awareness of environmental protection of enterprises and residents,especially in the western region.Therefore,in order to realize the coordinated development of environmental protection and economic growth,the following policy suggestions are put forward based on the empirical results:(1) Changing the garbage service charging method will accelerate the arrival of the turning point of the WKC curve.(2) We should make differentiated environmental regulation policies for different regions.(3) We should increase investment in green technological innovation.