成都夏季臭氧光化学反应控制气象因子的概率分布特征

Probability Distribution Characteristics of Meteorological Factors Controlling the Photochemical Reaction of Ozone during Summer in Chengdu

太阳辐射、气温和相对湿度是O_(3)光化学反应的控制气象因子,其数据分布形态在很大程度上决定了O_(3)的非线性演化进程。采用成都市2016—2019年6—8月O_(3)逐时监测数据,以及该时段同时次地面气象观测资料,基于极大似然估计法进行参数估计,并借助Kolmogorov-Smirnov检验(K-S检验)、均方根误差(RMSE值)、赤池信息准则(AIC值)和贝叶斯信息量(BIC值)分析了多种概率分布函数对O_(3)光化学反应控制气象因子的拟合优度。结果表明:(1)Johnson SB分布函数对研究区太阳辐射和相对湿度的拟合效果最优,不同O_(3)浓度等级条件下太阳辐射和相对湿度均服从Johnson SB分布,且通过显著性水平α=0.05的K-S检验。(2)Johnson SU分布函数对气温的拟合效果最优,不同O_(3)浓度等级条件下气温亦均服从Johnson SU分布,且通过显著性水平α=0.05的K-S检验。(3)太阳辐射、气温和相对湿度的概率分布特征随O_(3)浓度等级变化而呈现显著规律性差异。上述结论为成都地区夏季O_(3)污染潜势模型的构建提供了技术支持。

Solar radiation,relative humidity,and ambient temperature are three key meteorological controlling factors for the photochemical reaction of ground-level ozone(O_(3)).Their distribution forms play an extremely important role in the nonlinear evolution of O_(3).The hourly O_(3) concentration data and corresponding meteorological data in the same period from 2016 to 2019 during summer in Chengdu were collected and Maximum Likelihood Estimation method was used to estimate parameters for probability distribution functions.At the same time,Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistics(K-S test),root-mean-square-error(RMSE),Akaike Information Criterion(AIC),and Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC) were further combined to analyze the goodness of fit of multiple probability distribution functions of the three meteorological controlling factors for O_(3) photochemical reaction,respectively.The results indicate that:(1) Johnson SB distribution function had the best fitting effect for both solar radiation and relative humidity.Additionally,under different O_(3) concentration levels,the probability distribution of solar radiation and relative humidity kept obey Johnson SB distribution at significant level of α=0.05 in K-S test.(2) However,Johnson SU distribution function had the best fitting effect for ambient temperature.Moreover,the probability distributions of ambient temperature obey Johnson SU distribution under different O_(3) concentration levels at significant level of α=0.05 in K-S test.(3) The probability distribution characteristics of the three meteorological controlling factors vary significantly and regularly with the changing of O_(3) concentration level.These research results mentioned above could provide technical supports for the construction of O_(3) pollution potential model during summer in Chengdu.