中国居民婚前同居对初婚年龄的影响研究

Study on the Influence of Chinese Residents’Premarital Cohabitation on the Age of First Marriage

利用2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据分析了中国居民的初婚前同居状况及其对初婚年龄的影响。研究发现,男性、年收入高、以“自己认识”为主要择偶方式、较年轻出生世代中的个体,更倾向于婚前同居;Heckman二阶段回归分析进一步表明,“逆米尔斯比率”并不具有显著性,婚前同居者的初婚年龄平均延迟了1.239岁,经历假说得到了支持;婚前同居对初婚年龄的推迟在1960-1979年出生世代中表现得更为明显。该推迟效应将对现有的婚姻制度产生冲击,并对生育水平、人口代际更替造成威胁,因此可设定以家庭为单位的社会政策和福利制度,充分发挥婚姻在维护社会稳定和推动人口再生产中的积极作用。

Based on the data of China family tracking survey in 2018,this paper analyzes the cohabitation status of Chinese residents before their first marriage and its impact on the age of first marriage.The study found that men,individuals with high annual income,“known by self”as the main way of mate selection,and younger birth generations were more likely to cohabit before marriage;Heckman’s two-stage regression analysis further shows that the“inverse mills ratio”is not significant;the average age of first marriage of premarital cohabitants was delayed by 1.239 years,which was supported by the experience hypothesis;at the same time,the delay of premarital cohabitation on the age of first marriage is more obvious in the generation born from 1960 to 1979.This postponement effect will have an impact on the existing marriage system and pose a threat to the fertility level and population intergenerational replacement.Therefore,a social policy and welfare system with the family as the unit can be set to give full play to the positive role of marriage in maintaining social stability and promoting population reproduction.