基于演化博弈随机优化的市场主体可再生能源消纳责任权重分配方法研究

Research on Weight Allocation Method of Renewable Energy Consumption Responsibility Based on Evolutionary Game Stochastic Optimization

[目的]针对可再生能源消纳责任权重在市场主体上的分配问题,提出了一种基于演化博弈和随机优化的分配方法。[方法]首先,将各市场主体作为有限理性个体参与弱联系演化博弈中,得到演化平衡时使自己成本最小的消纳权重承担方案,进而得出在政府采取不同奖惩措施的概率区间下各市场主体的选择策略倾向。然后,在得到政府采取不同奖惩措施的概率区间后,通过一个随机优化模型,得到各个主体在各个概率区间内能使自己成本最小的消纳权重承担的具体方案。[结果]将提出的方法在某省电网的170家市场主体数据中进行测算,验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。[结论]在可再生能源消纳责任权重分配方法上提供了全新的方法和思路,为政府加强市场主体对可再生能源消纳的积极性提出了可行性建议。

[Introduction] Aiming at allocating renewable energy consumption responsibility weight problem among market subjects,an allocation method based on evolutionary game and stochastic optimization is proposed. [Method] First of all, each market subject was taken as a limited rational individual participate in the weakly linked evolutionary game, and the absorption weight undertaking scheme that minimizes its own cost in the evolutionary equilibriumwas obtained and the selection strategy tendency of each market subject under the probability interval of different rewards and punishments adopted by the government was obtained. Then, after getting the probability interval of different reward and punishment measures taken by the government, a stochastic optimization model was used to get the specific scheme of absorbing weight which couldminimize the cost of each subject in each probability interval.[Result] The effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method is verified by calculating the data of 170 market entities in a provincial power grid. [Conclusion] A new method and idea on the weight distribution method of renewable energy absorption responsibility is provided, and feasible suggestions for the government to strengthen the enthusiasm of market subjects in the absorption of renewable energyare put forward in this paper.