重新理解超大城市人口发展——广州市人口发展新特征及战略建议

Reunderstanding Mega-city Demography:New Features and Suggestions for Guangzhou’s Demographic Development

基于第六、第七次人口普查数据的对比,以广州市为例分析超大城市发展的新特点、新趋势。当前是超大城市调整人口红利发展模式、制定中长期人口均衡发展政策、加快公共服务均等化助推新型城镇化发展以及加快城市治理模式创新的关键时期。研究提出超大城市在人口服务与管理政策创新上亟须推进的五个方面:一是加快实施积极前瞻的人口发展战略;二是有序推进农业转移人口市民化;三是实施以人为核心促进人口协调稳定发展的政策;四是推动人口红利向人才红利转变;五是构建全周期高效性实有人口服务管理模式。

Based on the comparison of statistics obtained from the sixth and seventh national censuses,this paper analyses the new features and trends of mega-city demographic development through a case study of Guangzhou.The present period is critical for mega-cities as their demographic dividend has been adjusted,development pattern changed,medium and long-term policies related to the balanced development of population stipulated,equalization of public services accelerated,and urban governance patterns employed innovated.The study puts forward five aspects where the mega-cities are in great demand in terms of population service and management policy innovation.Firstly,the implementation of positive and forward-looking population development strategy should be accelerated.Secondly,the citizenization of rural population should be carried out in order.Thirdly,the policy of promoting coordinated and stable demographic development should be carried out.Fourthly,the transformation from population dividend to talent dividend should be driven.Fifthly,full-cycle efficient management mode of actual population service should be constructed.