经济不确定性、劳动力价格对出口结构的影响

The Influence of Economic Uncertainty and Labor Price on Export Structure

文章首先采用非线性格兰杰检验法探讨各变量与中国出口结构之间的互动关系,其后运用TVP-SV-VAR模型分析了不同提前期、不同时间点各变量对出口结构的动态影响。研究结果表明:第一,世界经济不确定性冲击短期内对中国出口结构优化具有显著的抑制作用,但随着相关利好政策的出台,这一不利影响在中长期内有所减弱;第二,劳动力价格上升冲击短期内使企业减少雇佣工人,从而促进出口结构“被动优化”,中长期内在选择效应、创新效应和国内外现实情况的共同作用下,推动出口结构逐步实现“主动优化”。为此,文章建议:政府应加强国际经济合作,探索规避经济不确定性负面影响的多样化方式;正视中国劳动力价格不断上涨的现实,鼓励出口企业增加创新投入以实现生产效率的提升以及出口产品的转型升级。

This paper firstly uses the nonlinear Granger test to investigate the interaction between variables and China's export structure,and then uses the TVP-SV-VAR model to investigate the dynamic impact of variables with different lead times and different time points on China's export structure.The results show that:firstly,the impact of world economic uncertainty has a significant inhibitory effect on the optimization of China's export structure in the short term,but with the introduction of relevant favorable policies,this adverse impact has weakened;Secondly,the impact of rising labor prices will reduce the number of workers in the short term,so as to promote the"passive optimization"of export structure.Under the joint action of internal selection effect,innovation effect and realities in medium and long-term,it will gradually promote the"active optimization"of export structure.Therefore,this paper suggests that:firstly,the government should strengthen international economic cooperation and explore diversified ways to avoid the negative impact of economic uncertainty;Secondly,government should encourage export enterprises to increase innovation investment in order to improve production efficiency and the transformation of export products.