基于LMDI模型的临沂市电力消费驱动因素分析

Driving Factors of Power Consumption in Linyi City Based on LMDI Model

在临沂市经济快速增长的同时,其电力消费量也迅速增加,提高电力消费效率对经济发展和节能减排有重要作用。运用LMDI因素分解法,从经济效应、结构效应和强度效应3个因素出发,对临沂市2009—2019年的电力消费增长情况进行了分解分析。结果表明:电力消费强度效应是制约电力消费增加的首要因素;临沂市产业用电增长的主要动因是经济增长,其次是产业布局的调整。

With the rapid growth of the economy of Linyi City,its power consumption is also increasing rapidly.It plays an important role of improving the efficiency of power consumption in the economic development and energy conservation and emission reduction.This paper analyzed the power consumption growth of Linyi City from 2009 to 2019 by using LMDI factor decomposition method from three factors:economic effect,structural effect and intensity effect.The results show that the electricity consumption intensity effect is the primary factor restricting the increase of power consumption;economic growth is the main cause of industrial electricity consumption growth in Linyi City,followed by the adjustment of industrial layout.