人口老龄化对中等收入群体扩大的影响研究

Impact of Population Aging on Middle-income Group Expansion

在人口老龄化不断加深的背景下,老龄化在中等收入群体扩大过程中产生的影响不容忽视。从微观家庭层面出发,借助2012—2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)4期混合截面数据,通过有序Logit模型估计,研究发现:人口老龄化显著降低了家庭成为中等收入群体的概率;人口老龄化对中等收入群体的影响存在显著的区域差异,与东部地区家庭相比,人口老龄化对中西部地区中等收入群体的负面影响更大;与沿海地区家庭相比,人口老龄化对内陆地区中等收入群体的负面影响更大;与农村地区家庭相比,人口老龄化对城镇地区中等收入群体的负面影响更大。根据分析结果,从产业结构升级、地区比较优势、社会保障体系三个方面提出降低人口老龄化影响,有效促进中等收入群体扩大的对策建议。

In the context of deepening population aging,the impact of aging produced in the process of middle-income group expansion can not be ignored.Starting from the micro family level and based on the 4 mixed cross-sectional data of China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2012 to 2018,an estimation is made by adopting the ordered Logit model.It is found that population aging significantly reduces the probability of a family becoming a member of the middle-income group,and that there exist significant regional differences in the impact of population aging on middle-income groups:compared with the families in the eastern region,population aging has a greater negative impact on middle-income groups in the central and western regions;compared with the families in coastal areas,population aging has a greater negative impact on middle-income groups in inland areas;and compared with the families in rural areas,population aging has a greater negative impact on middle-income groups in urban areas.Based on the analysis results,policy suggestions are put forward from the three aspects of industrial structure upgrading,regional comparative advantage and social security system so as to reduce the negative impact of population aging on the expansion of middle-income groups.