现代服务业高质量发展的测度、差异及演变——基于山东三大经济圈的视角

Measurement,Difference and Evolution of High-quality Development of Modern Service Industry:Based on the Perspective of Shandong’s Three Economic Circles

根据新发展理念构建山东省现代服务业高质量发展的综合评价指标体系,利用熵权法测度2004—2019年山东省现代服务业高质量发展指数,采用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计以及Markov转移矩阵分别揭示山东三大经济圈现代服务业高质量发展的区域差异及来源、分布动态演进及转移概率。研究发现:山东省现代服务业高质量发展稳中向好,表现出明显的区域非均衡性,呈现“胶东-省会-鲁南”三大经济圈由高到低阶梯分布的特征,其中区域间差异是区域差异的最主要来源。三大经济圈现代服务业高质量发展水平均有不同程度的提升,绝对差异小幅扩大。各地市现代服务业发展受邻域地市影响,现代服务业发展水平高的邻域会对该地市产生带动效应,反之,则会形成抑制效应。

This study constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for the high-quality development of modern service industry in Shandong Province based on the new development concept,measures the high-quality development index of Shandong modern service industry from 2004 to 2019 by using entropy weight method,and reveals respectively the regional differences and their sources,distributed dynamic evolution and transition probability of high-quality development of modern service industry in Shandong’s three economic circles by adopting Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation and Markov transfer matrix.It is found that the high-quality development of Shandong modern service industry is stable and improved,showing obvious regional imbalance and presenting the characteristics of ladder distribution from high to low in the three economic circles of“Eastern Shandong—Provincial Capital—Southern Shandong”,in which inter-regional dissimilarity is the main source of regional difference.The high-quality development level of modern service industry in the three economic circles has been improved to different degrees while the absolute difference has expanded slightly.The development of modern service industry in each prefecture and city is affected by its neighboring prefecture and city:the neighboring region with high development level of modern service industry will have a driving effect on the prefecture and city,and on the contrary,it will form a restraining effect.