气候变化背景下长白山落叶松毛虫暴发气象因子分析

Analysis of meteorological factors for outbreak of Larch caterpillar in Changbai Mountains under the background of climate change

为探究2018年起长白山自然保护区大面积暴发落叶松毛虫虫害的原因,利用长白山地区4个气象站点的温湿度、日照等逐月气象资料和2019年长白山北坡落叶松毛虫样地的普查资料,对落叶松毛虫暴发前10年的气象因子进行了分析,对虫害发生的天气和气候变化规律进行了研究.结果表明:长白山地区的气候已经发生变化,秋冬和春季气温强烈升高、春夏季温雨系数减少、全年和1月份日照时数增加使长白山地区落叶松毛虫暴发存在气候上的风险.2018和2019连续两年的高温、干燥,尤其是落叶松毛虫越冬时期温湿度适宜的气象条件是导致其暴发的重要原因.长白山地区可利用气象条件作为预测松毛虫暴发的关键指标.

Since 2018,large-scale outbreaks of Larch caterpillar have occurred in Changbai Mountains Nature Reserve.In order to explore the causes, the meteorological factors of 10 years before the outbreak were analyzed by using the monthly meteorological data of temperature, humidity, sunshine on 4 meteorological stations in Changbai Mountains area and the census data of Larch caterpillar sample plots on the northern slope of Changbai Mountains in 2019,and the trend of weather and climate change leading to the outbreak were studied.The results show that the climate has changed in Changbai Mountains area, especially the strong rise of temperature in autumn, winter and spring, the decrease of temperature rain coefficient and sunshine hours, especially the increase of sunshine hours in January, which makes the outbreak of Larch caterpillar in Changbai Mountains area a climate risk.The high temperature and dry in 2018 and 2019,especially the suitable temperature and humidity during the overwintering period of Larch caterpillar,is an important reason for its outbreak;meteorological conditions can be used as a key index to predict the outbreak of Larch caterpillar in Changbai Mountains area.