2021年中国天然气发展述评及2022年展望

China’s natural-gas industrial development:2021 review and 2022 outlook

2021年,世界经济在新冠肺炎疫情一波又一波的冲击下艰难前行,但国际石油和天然气价格逆势冲高,欧洲气价上涨幅度创下历史之最。中国天然气产业在国家“六稳”“六保”经济方针指引下,稳步前行,稳中有进,具体表现为:①天然气勘探硕果累累,新增天然气探明储量或超过历史最好水平;②天然气产量突破2000×10^(8)m^(3);③天然气进口增量和增幅创3年来新高:④全年天然气供需平稳平衡宽松,天然气消费增量居历史第二位;⑤西气东输三线中段开工,地下储气库建设紧锣密鼓;⑥管输价格改革又出新政,价格市场化改革悄然推进。结论认为:2022年中国天然气发展会遵循中央经济工作会议精神,稳字当头、稳中求进。预期新增天然气探明储量将再次超过1×10^(12)m^(3),天然气产量增量继续突破100×10^(8)m^(3),天然气进口量平稳增长,天然气需求量保持强势增涨,市场供需平衡,跨省天然气管道运价或将下调,天然气产供储销体系建设仍然是国家关注和推进的重点工程。

In 2021,although the world economy struggled through the frequent impact of COVID-19,global oil and gas prices rose against the trend and even the European gas price hit an all-time record.Under the guidance of national economic policy of“six stabilities”and“six guarantees”,however,China’s natural-gas industry was always on the ground to move forward steadily,appearing six characteristics as followed.First,natural-gas exploration achievements were fruitful and new proved reserves hit the highest historical level.Second,natural-gas production broke the barrier of 2000×10^(8) m^(3).Third,both increase and growth rate in natural-gas import reached a new high in the three years.Fourth,natural gas supply and demand in this year was stable,balanced and loose,and the increase of apparent consumption came the second in history.Fifth,the middle section of the third West-to-East Gas Pipeline begun on construction and UGSs’construction was being planned.Sixth,a new policy on pipeline transportation price reform was issued and the market-oriented price reform advanced quietly.In 2022,the development of China’s natural-gas industry will follow the spirit of the central economic work to set stability first and make progress while maintaining stability.It’s expected that the newly proved reserves and production will exceed 1×10^(12) m^(3) and 100×10^(8) m^(3),respectively.The import will increase steadily.Furthermore,the demand will remain strong,the market supply and demand will keep balance,the trans-provincial pipeline transmission price shall be reduced,and the construction of production,supply,storage,and sale system will still be the key engineering concerned and promoted by the state.