川渝地区管道现货天然气价格指数编制的思路与建议

Ideas and suggestions on compiling the spot-price index of pipeline gas in Sichuan-Chongqing area

国家石油天然气管网集团有限公司(以下简称“国家管网公司”)的正式成立,标志着天然气市场化改革进入加速期、深化期。天然气门站价格取消后建立竞争性的市场化交易价格基准至关重要,而2021年以来国际天然气价格的大幅波动,更加凸显了我国通过编制有影响力的价格指数争取天然气定价权和话语权的重要性。川渝地区天然气管网发达、市场比较成熟,市场化交易比较活跃,具备探索建立天然气现货价格指数的基础条件。为了建立科学合理的川渝地区管道现货天然气价格指数,通过系统梳理总结国内外价格指数编制的经验和启示,提出适应我国行业现状及市场价格实际需要的价格指数编制方案。研究结果表明:①成熟价格指数一定是标尺性和可投资性有机结合,指数编制一般采用相对数或绝对数;②从样本选择和数据来源来看,公开市场集中竞价形成的价格是指数编制的最基础的数据,在缺乏这类数据的情况下,构建科学的评估体系所评估的数据是可以作为有效的补充;③国内外大部分天然气价格指数均采用加权算数平均法;④基于目前川渝地区天然气市场现状,川渝地区管道现货天然气价格采用交易数据+评估数据相结合的方式作为编制指数的基础数据,以交易数据为主,评估数据为辅。结论认为:①继续增大川渝地区线上交易的规模,为竞争性现货价格指数奠定坚实基础;②积极争取各级政府支持,保障指数的可持续性和权威性;③开展价格指数的衍生品研究,不断提升价格指数的影响力和公信力。

Setting up National Oil and Natural Gas Pipeline Group Co.Ltd.(PipeChina)implies a reform acceleration and deepening in natural-gas market.After the cancellation of natural-gas gate price,it’s crucial to establish another competi⁃t ive market-oriented transaction price benchmark.Since 2021,a large fluctuation on international natural-gas price also highlights the importance of China’s striving for both gas pricing and discourse power via forming an influential price in⁃d ex.There are gas pipelines built in Sichuan-Chongqing area with relatively mature market and more active market-orient⁃e d transaction,bringing about basic condition for natural-gas spot pricing.So,in order to establish the spot-price index of pipeline gas in this area scientifically and reasonably,a price-index compilation scheme was put forward adaptive to do⁃m estic industrial status and actual market price after systematically analyzing domestic and foreign experience and enlight⁃e nment in price index compilation.Results show that(1)a mature price index is surely the organic combination of scale and investability,and its compilation generally adopts relative or absolute number;(2)from the perspective of sample selec⁃t ion and data source,the price formed by centralized bidding in open market is the most basic data for index compilation.I n the absence of such data,the data which is evaluated to construct a scientific evaluation system can be used as an ef⁃f ective complement;(3)domestic and foreign gas price indexes mostly adopt the weighted arithmetic average method;and(4)based on current situation of natural-gas market in Sichuan-Chongqing area,the spot price of pipeline gas often adopts the combination of transaction data+evaluation data as the basic data,which also takes transaction data as the primary as well as evaluation data as the auxiliary.In conclusion,in this area,the online transaction scale should be continually in⁃c reased to lay a solid foundation for competitive spot-price index.Some support from the government should strive for en⁃s uring the index sustainability and authority.What’s more,the price-index derivatives should be further studied to contin⁃u ously improve both price-index influence and credibility.