沿海工业地区复合绝缘子老化寿命预测研究

Aging Life-Span Prediction of Composite Insulators in Coastal Industry Area

以沿海工业地区运行0~13年复合绝缘子为研究对象,根据以往的研究经验,采用静态接触角法、硬度测试法等方法对复合绝缘子样品寿命预测参数进行测试。基于测试结果通过统计学方法得出与老化年限显著相关的参数,并利用BP神经网络系统对沿海工业地区复合绝缘子的运行寿命进行预测。研究结果表明:寿命预测参数HC级别H_(C)、静态接触角θ、硬度A、拉伸强度T、Si-O-Si与Si(CH_(3))_(2)吸收峰高度比值H、O元素相对含量X_(o)与老化年限具有显著的相关性,可以对复合绝缘子的老化程度进行精准的评价;通过检验,预测的复合绝缘子运行寿命与实际老化年限误差在5%。

Composite insulators operating in coastal chemical areas for 0~13 years were sampled. In accordance to previous research experiences, test methods such as static contact angle method, hardness test method were employed to investigate the changing law of life-span prediction parameters with operating time. Based on test results, some life-span prediction parameters significantly correlated with operating time were filtered by means of correlation calculation. On this basis, a prediction method which can be used to determine operating time of composite insulators was proposed based on BP neural network. Test results indicate that life-span prediction parameters including H_(C)、θ、A、T、H、X_(o) were significantly correlated with operating time, and these parameters can be used to characterize aging degree of composite insulators accurately. Through inspection, the error between the predicted and the actual aging life-span of composite insulator is 5%.